I really liked this one...
I answer lots of questions about Oracle. Many of them are ambiguous, unclear, not fully specified, hard to follow. It is like unraveling a puzzle sometimes (ok, most of the times...)
That is why I found this question to be really amusing - especially after reading the comments. Lots of disagreement as to the meaning of the question!
So, what do you think the answer is... I'll post what I think after I see some feedback. It is a very very interesting question.
And it also points to why I think the answer to all questions is mostly "Why" or "It depends". We usually need a lot more information to answer what might appear to be simple questions.
That is why I found this question to be really amusing - especially after reading the comments. Lots of disagreement as to the meaning of the question!
So, what do you think the answer is... I'll post what I think after I see some feedback. It is a very very interesting question.
And it also points to why I think the answer to all questions is mostly "Why" or "It depends". We usually need a lot more information to answer what might appear to be simple questions.
posted by Thomas Kyte at 12:53 PM
34 Comments:
Very interesting question.
My take: Depends on *what* the correct answer is.
If the expected answer is 50% or 60%, the chance of being correct when making a random choice is 25%.
If the expected answer is 25%, the chance is 50%.
The chance is 25%
Because the chance to choose correct answer to a question of four possible, we know that is 25%, and there are two anwsers with that label, so there is a chance of 50% to select correct answer. And that label is b) just one of four, so 25% ;)
Regards
x1=25%, x2=50%, x3=60%
p(x1)=.50, p(x2)=.25, p(x3)=.25
p(x1 is correct)=p(x2 is correct)=p(x3 is correct) = p(c)= 1/3
The chance that you can pick the correct answer is
p(x1).p(c)+p(x2).p(c)+ p(x3).p(c) = p(c) (p(x1)+p(x2)+p(x3)) = 1/3 . 1 = 1/3 = .3333333333
Who says that any of the options are right in the first place? You can't just assume there's is a correct answer.
0% because none of the answers are correct.
ADD
word: twwad
prcedure thinking as
begin
loop
thinking; --forever
end loop;
end;
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prcedure thinking call itself without stop condition make loop forever !
as sql speeking it seem like a DEADLOCK !!
To me, this is no different than the typical paradox statements such as:
"This statement is false."
I consider it a paradox :)
No answer.
Thought process on getting there:
Base chance of correct answer with 4 possibilites: 1/4 = 25 %.
There are 2 answers of 25%, therefore the chance of picking 25% is 2/4 = 50%.
oops, chance of picking 50%: 1/4 = 25%.
hmm, we've been here before.
Paradox.
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25%. Since I am picking the answer at random, the probability of me being right is 0.25
B) 50%.
Since I'd be choosing either a or d, I'll have a 50% chance of being right.
I must ask my friend, the liar.
When you choose at random, you choose "from" something. What are we choosing from: the set A,B,C,D or the set 25%,50%,60% or something else?
The various comments assume one or the other of those choices.
You could even "make" 50% the right answer by assuming the choices are 25%,50%,50%,60%. Indeed, by varying the assumptions you could "make" each answer right or wrong.
Oracle Optimiser -
1/distinct =1/3=33.333%
42 is the one and only answer.
The question is incomplete and the percentages are there just for distraction.
The question could might be:
"I have four balls in a box, 1 red 1 green and 2 blue. What is the chance to get the right ball?"
The question should be something like: "What's the probability to get the blue ball on a random extraction"... or red or blue...
And if it expected to be blue, the answer would be 50%, red or green 25%.
Paulo Vale
Make it hurt even more, exchange 60% for 0%
The question is about answering your chances to answer this question right.
Because this is random pick, hence if you are feeling very luck then choose C,
If you feeling 50 - 50 then choose B,
If you are not very sure then choose either A or B because both have same %.
It is all about your chances to pick the right answer to the question and can never be more than 60% :)
Else there is another option E) called One of these :)
selectivity=1/NDV=1/3=33%
Its b)50%
There are two outcomes, you are either correct or you are not.
The chance of that is 50%.
The question is not asking to pick the choice,it is asking for the chance. The confusion is due to the chance which depends on the choice. Based on the choice, the chance is 33.3% , which is not part of the choice.
Looks like a paradox to me.
Given: four choices for answer
Assume: Correct answer is withing the four choices.
So...
Selecting correct answer at random is 1 in 4 or 25%. However, there are two answers of 25% so the chance or selecting 25% at random is 2 in 4, which is 50% and the chance of selecting 50% at random is 25%, so.....
We we have a paradox that selecting one answer affects the result in itself. Thus we cannot solve this paradox.
If the actual probability is 33%, it means that it doesn't matter which one you choose - you will always be wrong.
The chance of getting it right from those choices is therefore 0%.
Let's rephrase:
If you chose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?
A. RED
B. BLUE
C. GREEN
D. RED
What now?
There is no question.
Hence, the problem translates to "what is the chance to correctly answer a non-existing question?"
If anything and if one must ... pretty slim ... 0%
G
The chance to pick 25% ( a or d) is 2/4, the chance to pick b or c is 1/4.
Meaning that whatever you pick, it won't match your chance to pick it.
So the probability is 0.
It's like the probabilty of getting a third side of a two faced coin.
The question is this: -
If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?
Forget for now that you have 4 choices.
Look at the question and try to answer it.
Either the answer is 50% (correct or not correct) or its almost 0% (there is a correct answer and an almost infintesimal chance of picking it at random).
Which one of those is an option when you look at the 4 possible answers?
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If you choose to answer this question at random(and there is at least and atmost one answer to this question or exactly one answer to this question) what is the probability you are correct
a)100%
b)100%
c)100%
d)100%
--The answer is pretty clear here
100% chance you are correct
like wise if the choice are like
a)100
b)100
c)50
d)50
the answer should be 0.5(the right answer could be 100 or 50)
Since the question doesn't mention about the number of accurate answers to the question or whether the answer can be NOT in the 4 choices, it leads to a point of confusion.
Wish I had paid attention to the probability lessons at school!!
If you choose to answer this question at random(and there is at least and atmost one answer to this question or exactly one answer to this question) what is the probability you are correct
a)100%
b)100%
c)100%
d)100%
--The answer is pretty clear here
100% chance you are correct
like wise if the choice are like
a)100
b)100
c)50
d)50
the answer should be 0.5(the right answer could be 100 or 50)
Since the question doesn't mention about the number of accurate answers to the question or whether the answer can be NOT in the 4 choices, it leads to a point of confusion.
Wish I had paid attention to the probability lessons at school!!
Tom, waiting for your answer...
Very interesting. I like it.
the answer is...42
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